Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most conservative government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the outgoing government in June, when rightwing politician the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an already unstable and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the rightwing, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, major Netherlands political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is projected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could last months.
How the System Works and Political Landscape
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – earlier if administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an approved list of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a young people's party, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the army to combat "street terrorists", and an termination to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two parties, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the late 1970s to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the last election.
Nevertheless, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has bounced back with a campaign emphasizing the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the established social democratic party that is expected to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a campaign centred on housing (it proposes to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for claimants.
The center-right VVD, the political group of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, accused of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been immigration, with several – occasionally aggressive – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is lacking four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what coalitions are feasible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Multiple options look plausible, typically including a combination of political groups from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
