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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest upset.

However this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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