Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
