Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
